2011 Independent Spirit Awards Nominees: We Predict the Winners

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They may not be hosted by James Franco and Anne Hathaway, but we’re still excited about the annual Film Independent Spirit Awards — and luckily, we don’t have to wait until January 25th for the nominations. After the jump, we give you the full rundown, plus our predictions for who will win. Use it to make your must-see holiday film list, and tell us who you want to win in the comments.

Best feature 127 Hours Black Swan Greenberg The Kids Are All Right Winter’s Bone

Our prediction: The Kids Are All Right

Best director Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan Danny Boyle, 127 Hours Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right Debra Granik, Winter’s Bone John Cameron Mitchell, Rabbit Hole

Our prediction: Darren Aronofsky

Best first feature Everything Strange and New Get Low The Last Exorcism Night Catches Us Tiny Furniture

Our prediction: Tiny Furniture

John Cassavetes Award (best feature with a budget of $500k or less) Daddy Longlegs The Exploding Girl Lbs. Lovers of Hate Obsedila

Our prediction: Daddy Longlegs

Best screenplay Stuart Blumberg, Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right Debra Granik, Anne Rosellini, Winter’s Bone Nicole Holofcener, Please Give David Lindsay-Abaire, Rabbit Hole Todd Solondz, Life During Wartime

Our prediction: Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Chodolenko

Best first screenplay Diane Bell, Obselidia Lena Dunham, Tiny Furniture Nik Fackler, Lovely, Still Bob Glaudini, Jack Goes Boating Dana Adam Shapiro, Evan M. Wiener, Monogamy

Our prediction: Lena Dunham

Best female lead Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right Greta Gerwig, Greenberg Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone Natalie Portman, Black Swan Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

Our prediction: Natalie Portman

Best male lead Ronald Bronstein, Daddy Longlegs Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole James Franco, 127 Hours John C. Reilly, Cyrus Ben Stiller, Greenberg

Our prediction: James Franco

Best supporting female Ashley Bell, The Last Exorcism Dale Dickey, Winter’s Bone Allison Janney, Life During Wartime Daphne Rubin-Vega, Jack Goes Boating Naomi Watts, Mother and Child

Our prediction: Dale Dickey

Best supporting male John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone Samuel L. Jackson, Mother and Child Bill Murray, Get Low John Ortiz, Jack Goes Boating Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right

Our prediction: John Hawkes

Best cinematography Adam Kimmel, Never Let Me Go Matthew Libatique, Black Swan Jody Lee Lipes, Tiny Furniture Michael McDonough, Winter’s Bone Harris Savides, Greenberg

Our prediction: Matthew Libatique

Best documentary Exit Through The Gift Shop Marwencol Restrepo Sweetgrass Thunder Soul

Our prediction: Exit Through the Gift Shop (although whether or not it counts as a documentary is debatable…)

Best foreign film Kisses Mademoiselle Chambon Of Gods and Men The King’s Speech Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives

Our prediction: Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives